Projected EPS from Revenue
Builds future earnings per share from the top down: compound revenue forward at a growth rate, apply an expected net profit margin to get net income, then divide by a share count that shrinks with buybacks or expands with dilution.
When to use: Use as the first step of a revenue-driven stock valuation, when forecasting the business (sales, margin, share count) is easier to defend than forecasting EPS directly. Enter revenue and share count in the same units, for example both in millions. Leave the share count change blank for a flat share count.
Formula
Variables
| Symbol | Name | Description | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPSn | Projected EPS | Earnings per share in year n implied by revenue, margin, and share count | $ |
| Rev0 | Current Revenue | Trailing twelve-month revenue, in the same units as share count | $ |
| gRev | Revenue Growth Rate | Expected compound annual revenue growth as a decimal | % |
| NetMargin | Net Margin | Net income ÷ revenue, as a decimal | % |
| Shares | Shares Outstanding | Diluted shares outstanding | integer |
| s | Share Count Change | Annual change in diluted shares as a decimal; negative for buybacks, positive for dilution | % |
| n | Holding Period | Years held before exit | years |
Real-Life Examples
Example 1: Buyback Tailwind
A business does $12.0B of revenue at a 15% net margin on 900M shares, so EPS is $2.00 today. You expect 8% revenue growth for 5 years, a steady margin, and a 3% annual reduction in share count.
Given
Step-by-Step
EPS grows 71% over five years while revenue grows only 47%. The buyback supplies roughly a third of the EPS growth without the business improving at all.
Example 2: Dilution Drag
Identical business and identical operating forecast, except stock-based compensation expands the share count by 3% a year instead of shrinking it.
Given
Step-by-Step
The same $2.64B of net income supports only $2.53 of EPS instead of $3.42, a 26% haircut. Share count is a valuation input, not an afterthought.
Frequently Asked Questions
Revenue is the least manipulable line on the income statement and the most stable to project. Margin and share count are separate judgment calls that you can defend, stress-test, and revise one at a time. Forecasting EPS directly bundles all three assumptions into one number you can no longer take apart.
Any units, as long as revenue and share count use the same one. Revenue in millions with shares in millions gives EPS in dollars per share, and so does revenue in billions with shares in billions. Mixing units (revenue in billions, shares in millions) throws EPS off by a factor of 1,000.
Use a normalized margin the company can sustain, not the most recent quarter. For a business with expanding margins, model the level you believe it reaches by year n rather than today's. For cyclicals, use a mid-cycle average so a peak year does not anchor the whole projection.
Look at the last three to five years of diluted share counts and compute the compound annual change. A company that went from 1,000M to 900M shares over 5 years shrank about 2.1% a year. Then adjust for what you expect ahead: buyback authorizations, stock-based compensation, or planned equity issuance.