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Implied Required Return

Inverts the Entry P/E formula to solve for the required return: given the market P/E, an exit P/E assumption, an expected growth rate, and a holding period, what return does the price imply if all assumptions are met?

When to use: Use to check whether a stock's implied return meets your hurdle rate. If implied return is below your required return, the market is too optimistic; above, the market may be offering a margin of safety.

Calculator

Formula

ImpliedR=[(1+g)n×ExitPEP/E]1/n1\text{ImpliedR} = \left[ \frac{(1 + g)^n \times \text{ExitPE}}{P/E} \right]^{1/n} - 1

Variables

SymbolNameDescriptionUnit
ImpliedRImplied Required ReturnRequired return implied by the market price%
PEP/E RatioPrice-to-earnings multipleinteger
ExitPEExit P/E RatioExpected price-to-earnings multiple at exitinteger
gEarnings Growth RateExpected annual EPS growth as a decimal%
nHolding PeriodYears held before exityears

Real-Life Examples

Example 1: 25× Stock, 20× Exit, 10% Growth

Stock at 25× earnings; assume exit at 20× in 10 years and 10% EPS growth over that period.

Given

PE = 25ExitPE = 20g = 0.1n = 10

Step-by-Step

1.(1.10)^10 = 2.5937
2.Numerator = 2.5937 × 20 = 51.875
3.Ratio = 51.875 / 25 = 2.075
4.ImpliedR = 2.075^(1/10) − 1 = 1.0757 − 1 = 0.0757 = 7.57%
Result:0.08

Implied annualized return is 7.6% — below a typical 10% equity hurdle. Either growth needs to come in stronger than 10%, the exit multiple needs to expand, or the price is too high for the assumed scenario.

Frequently Asked Questions

Forward-looking. It tells you what annualized return the current market price implies if your growth and exit P/E assumptions hold. To check a return you actually realized on a closed position, use the same formula with the price you paid as the P/E input.

It means even with growth and the assumed exit P/E, the price today is already so high that holding to that exit produces a loss. Sign of a meaningfully overpriced stock relative to the assumptions used.

This formula ignores dividends — pure price-appreciation return. For dividend payers, switch to the With Dividends variant, which compounds the dividend yield with the price-appreciation return rigorously.